Championship

Championship | Gameweek 22

Dec 20, 2024 at 8pm UK

Kenilworth Road Stadium

Luton
2 - 1
Derby

Holmes (89'), Morris (90+2')
Andersen (37')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Jackson (58')
Phillips (41'), Elder (67'), Nelson (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Luton Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Luton Town

All competitions

Last Game: Blackburn 2-0 Luton
Saturday, December 14 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 4-0 Portsmouth
Friday, December 13 at 8pm in Championship

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 47.64%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Luton Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Luton Town.

Result
Luton Town	Draw	Derby County
47.64% ( 1.01)	26.1% ( 0.01)	26.25% ( -1.02)

Both teams to score 49.63% (

-0.8)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.87% (

-0.66)

54.13% (

0.66)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.45% (

-0.56)

75.55% (

0.55)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.27% (

0.18)

22.72% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.6% (

0.26)

56.39% (

-0.27)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.23% (

-1.19)

35.77% (

1.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.46% (

-1.24)

72.54% (

1.24)

Score Analysis

Luton Town 47.64%

Derby County 26.25%

Draw 26.1%

Luton Town	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 12.04% ( 0.37) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.92% ( 0.32) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.93% Total : 47.64%	1-1 @ 12.38% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.1%	0-1 @ 8.36% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.37% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.11) Other @ 1.96% Total : 26.25%

How you voted: Luton vs Derby

Luton Town

78.6%

Draw

12.2%

Derby County

9.2%

Head to Head

Feb 26, 2022 3pm

Gameweek 35

Luton

1-0

Derby

Hylton (67')
Burke (52'), Jerome (72')

Kazim-Richards (77'), Ebiowei (90+3')

> Preview

Oct 19, 2021 7.45pm

Gameweek 13

Derby

2-2

Luton

Lawrence (20'), Knight (60')
Lawrence (90+2')

Onyedinma (49'), Adebayo (84')
Naismith (14'), Ruddock (90+2')

> Preview

Apr 2, 2021 3pm

Gameweek 39

Derby

2-0

Luton

Gregory (7'), Shinnie (49' pen.)
Wisdom (47'), Sibley (51'), Byrne (66'), Kazim-Richards (90+5')

Dewsbury-Hall (66'), Pearson (81')

> Match Report

Sep 19, 2020 3pm

Gameweek 2

Luton

2-1

Derby

Berry (34'), Clark (87')
Norrington-Davies (22'), Ruddock (90+4')

Marriott (52')

> Match Report

Jan 28, 2020 7.45pm

Gameweek 29

Luton

3-2

Derby

Ruddock (67'), Daniels (74'), Bogle (86' og.)
Ruddock (70')

Mark Rooney (63'), Martin (85')
Bogle (23'), Hamer (88'), Rooney (88'), Wisdom (94')
Lowe (88')

Form Guide

Nations League

International Friendlies

International Friendlies

International Friendlies

Singapore

Tajikistan

World Cup Qualifying - Asia

World Cup Qualifying - North Central America

COSAFA Cup

Lesotho

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Leeds United Leeds	46	29	13	4	95	30	65	100
P	Burnley	46	28	16	2	69	16	53	100
3	Sheffield United Sheff Utd	46	28	8	10	63	36	27	90
P	Sunderland	46	21	13	12	58	44	14	76
5	Coventry City Coventry	46	20	9	17	64	58	6	69
6	Bristol City	46	17	17	12	59	55	4	68
7	Blackburn Rovers Blackburn	46	19	9	18	53	48	5	66
8	Millwall	46	18	12	16	47	49	-2	66
9	West Bromwich Albion West Brom	46	15	19	12	57	47	10	64
10	Middlesbrough	46	18	10	18	64	56	8	64
11	Swansea City Swansea	46	17	10	19	51	56	-5	61
12	Sheffield Wednesday Sheff Weds	46	15	13	18	60	69	-9	58
13	Norwich City Norwich	46	14	15	17	71	68	3	57
14	Watford	46	16	9	21	53	61	-8	57
15	Queens Park Rangers QPR	46	14	14	18	53	63	-10	56
16	Portsmouth	46	14	12	20	58	71	-13	54
17	Oxford United Oxford Utd	46	13	14	19	49	65	-16	53
18	Stoke City Stoke	46	12	15	19	45	62	-17	51
19	Derby County Derby	46	13	11	22	48	56	-8	50
20	Preston North End Preston	46	10	20	16	48	59	-11	50
21	Hull City	46	12	13	21	44	54	-10	49
R	Luton Town Luton	46	13	10	23	45	69	-24	49
R	Plymouth Argyle Plymouth	46	11	13	22	51	88	-37	46
R	Cardiff City Cardiff	46	9	17	20	48	73	-25	44
					> Championship Full Table