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Championship | Gameweek 16
Nov 23, 2024 at 3pm UK
Deepdale
Derby logo

Preston
1 - 1
Derby

Greenwood (23')
Greenwood (62'), McCann (87')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Yates (29')
Thompson (58'), Harness (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Preston North End and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Portsmouth 3-1 Preston
Saturday, November 9 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 1-1 Plymouth
Saturday, November 9 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Preston North End 2-1 Derby County

Given a fortnight to reflect on their poor run of form, Preston should be raring to get back into second-tier action and put Derby to the sword at Deepdale. The Rams have struggled on the road so far in 2024-25, so we cannot envisage the newly-promoted side earning anything tangible for their efforts in Lancashire this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 39.47%. A win for Preston North End had a probability of 33.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Preston North End win was 1-0 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.

Result
Preston North EndDrawDerby County
33.8% (0.308 0.31) 26.72% (0.13 0.13) 39.47% (-0.439 -0.44)
Both teams to score 51.53% (-0.342 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.53% (-0.467 -0.47)53.46% (0.467 0.47)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.01% (-0.396 -0.4)74.99% (0.396 0.4)
Preston North End Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.12% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)29.88% (0.032 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.02% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)65.97% (0.038999999999987 0.04)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.49% (-0.455 -0.45)26.5% (0.454 0.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.3% (-0.608 -0.61)61.7% (0.609 0.61)
Score Analysis
    Preston North End 33.8%
    Derby County 39.47%
    Draw 26.72%
Preston North EndDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.57% (0.165 0.17)
2-1 @ 7.67% (0.028 0.03)
2-0 @ 5.78% (0.095 0.09)
3-1 @ 3.09% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.33% (0.036 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.05% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-1 @ 0.93% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 33.8%
1-1 @ 12.7% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
0-0 @ 7.92% (0.144 0.14)
2-2 @ 5.09% (-0.048 -0.05)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.72%
0-1 @ 10.51% (0.06 0.06)
1-2 @ 8.43% (-0.071000000000002 -0.07)
0-2 @ 6.98% (-0.052 -0.05)
1-3 @ 3.73% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-3 @ 3.09% (-0.064 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.26% (-0.051 -0.05)
1-4 @ 1.24% (-0.043 -0.04)
0-4 @ 1.03% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 39.47%

How you voted: Preston vs Derby

Preston North End
51.4%
Draw
24.3%
Derby County
24.3%
37
Head to Head
Apr 2, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 40
Derby
1-0
Preston
Morrison (80')
Davies (66'), Knight (84')
Bird (55')

Whiteman (61'), Johnson (87')
Lindsay (32')
Oct 16, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 12
Preston
0-0
Derby
Johnson (5'), Storey (62')
Apr 20, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 43
Preston
3-0
Derby
Whiteman (18'), Evans (73'), Ledson (87')

Byrne (86')
Dec 26, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 21
Derby
0-1
Preston

Waghorn (20')
Browne (90+5')
Fisher (43')
Sep 15, 2020 6.30pm
Second Round
Derby
1-2
Preston
Knight (51')
Buchanan (27'), Shinnie (65'), Evans (88')
te Wierik (55')
Barkhuizen (79'), Johnson (90+2' pen.)
Huntington (59'), Browne (73'), Fisher (75')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds452813493296497
2Burnley452716266155197
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd452871062352789
4Sunderland4521131158431576
5Bristol City451716125753467
6Coventry CityCoventry45199176258466
7Millwall451812154646066
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn45198185247565
9Middlesbrough4518101764541064
10West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom451419125244861
11Swansea CitySwansea45179194853-560
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds451512185968-957
13Watford45168215260-856
14Norwich CityNorwich451315176766154
15Queens Park RangersQPR451314185263-1153
16Portsmouth451411205770-1353
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd451313194662-1652
18Stoke CityStoke451214194562-1750
19Derby CountyDerby451310224856-849
20Preston North EndPreston451019164657-1149
21Luton TownLuton451310224264-2249
22Hull City451212214353-1048
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth451113215086-3646
24Cardiff CityCardiff45917194669-2344


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