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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 52.17%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Portsmouth had a probability of 23.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Portsmouth win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Portsmouth | 
| 52.17% (  0.22) | 24.63% (  -0.09) | 23.19% (  -0.13) | 
| Both teams to score 51.04% (  0.11) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 49.2% (  0.22) | 50.8% (  -0.22) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 27.31% (  0.2) | 72.69% (  -0.2) | 
| Derby County Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 80.55% (  0.17) | 19.45% (  -0.17) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.71% (  0.28) | 51.29% (  -0.28) | 
| Portsmouth Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 63.36% (  0) | 36.63% (  -0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.58% (  0) | 73.42% (  -0) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Derby County | Draw | Portsmouth | 
| 1-0 @ 11.66% (  -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.59% (  0.02) 2-0 @ 9.55% (  0.02) 3-1 @ 5.24% (  0.04) 3-0 @ 5.21% (  0.04) 3-2 @ 2.63% (  0.02) 4-1 @ 2.14% (  0.03) 4-0 @ 2.13% (  0.03) 4-2 @ 1.08% (  0.01) Other @ 2.94% Total : 52.17% | 1-1 @ 11.71% (  -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.12% (  -0.06) 2-2 @ 4.82% (  0.01) Other @ 0.98% Total : 24.63% | 0-1 @ 7.15% (  -0.06) 1-2 @ 5.88% (  -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.59% (  -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.97% (  -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.61% (  0) 0-3 @ 1.2% (  -0.01) Other @ 1.78% Total : 23.19% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 95 | 30 | 65 | 100 | 
| P | Burnley | 46 | 28 | 16 | 2 | 69 | 16 | 53 | 100 | 
| 3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 36 | 27 | 90 | 
| P | Sunderland | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 76 | 
| 5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 58 | 6 | 69 | 
| 6 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 59 | 55 | 4 | 68 | 
| 7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 66 | 
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 66 | 
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 15 | 19 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 64 | 
| 10 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 64 | 56 | 8 | 64 | 
| 11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 61 | 
| 12 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 58 | 
| 13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 71 | 68 | 3 | 57 | 
| 14 | Watford | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 57 | 
| 15 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 53 | 63 | -10 | 56 | 
| 16 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 58 | 71 | -13 | 54 | 
| 17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 53 | 
| 18 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 51 | 
| 19 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 50 | 
| 20 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 10 | 20 | 16 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 50 | 
| 21 | Hull City | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 49 | 
| R | Luton TownLuton | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 49 | 
| R | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 51 | 88 | -37 | 46 | 
| R | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 48 | 73 | -25 | 44 | 
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