Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 44.62%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 30.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 0-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 44.62% ( | 25.29% ( | 30.09% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.75% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.31% ( | 48.69% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.2% ( | 70.8% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.19% ( | 21.81% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.97% ( | 55.02% ( |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.02% ( | 29.98% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.9% ( | 66.09% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 1-0 @ 9.96% ( 2-1 @ 9.13% ( 2-0 @ 7.58% ( 3-1 @ 4.64% ( 3-0 @ 3.85% ( 3-2 @ 2.79% ( 4-1 @ 1.77% ( 4-0 @ 1.47% 4-2 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 2.38% Total : 44.62% | 1-1 @ 11.99% ( 0-0 @ 6.54% ( 2-2 @ 5.5% ( 3-3 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.29% | 0-1 @ 7.88% ( 1-2 @ 7.23% ( 0-2 @ 4.75% ( 1-3 @ 2.9% ( 2-3 @ 2.21% ( 0-3 @ 1.91% ( Other @ 3.22% Total : 30.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 28 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 60 | 21 | 39 | 70 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 29 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 86 | 33 | 53 | 64 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 29 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 64 | 32 | 32 | 59 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 53 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 54 | 40 | 14 | 47 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 46 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 46 |
| 8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 34 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 34 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 33 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 33 |
| 12 | Heracles | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 32 |
| 13 | Groningen | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 32 |
| 14 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 30 |
| 16 | Willem II | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 24 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 29 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 19 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 29 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 20 | 57 | -37 | 19 |
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