The two teams could not be separated in their two previous meetings earlier this season, and another closely-fought contest could be played out in Thursday's first leg.
Twente boast a stronger run of form and have won each of their last three away from home, but we believe that Sparta Rotterdam will do enough to keep themselves in the tie ahead of Sunday's reverse fixture.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 54.17%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 23.3% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.06%) and 0-2 (8.49%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 2-1 (6.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
