

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 38%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (10.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Chaves |
| 38% ( | 28.05% ( | 33.95% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.52% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.46% ( | 58.53% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.89% ( | 79.11% ( |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.22% ( | 29.77% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.15% ( | 65.85% ( |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.66% ( | 32.34% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.15% ( | 68.84% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 11.66% 2-1 @ 7.98% ( 2-0 @ 7.07% ( 3-1 @ 3.22% ( 3-0 @ 2.85% ( 3-2 @ 1.82% ( 4-1 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.42% Total : 38% | 1-1 @ 13.16% ( 0-0 @ 9.63% ( 2-2 @ 4.5% Other @ 0.75% Total : 28.04% | 0-1 @ 10.86% ( 1-2 @ 7.43% ( 0-2 @ 6.14% ( 1-3 @ 2.8% ( 0-3 @ 2.31% ( 2-3 @ 1.7% Other @ 2.71% Total : 33.94% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Porto | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | BoavistaBoavista | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Braga | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | SC FarenseFarense | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Vizela | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 4 |
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