

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.83% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (9.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 39.55% ( | 26.62% ( | 33.83% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.87% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.96% ( | 53.04% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.37% ( | 74.63% ( |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.73% ( | 26.27% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.61% ( | 61.38% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.35% ( | 29.65% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.3% ( | 65.7% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 10.41% ( 2-1 @ 8.46% ( 2-0 @ 6.96% ( 3-1 @ 3.77% ( 3-0 @ 3.1% ( 3-2 @ 2.29% ( 4-1 @ 1.26% ( 4-0 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 2.26% Total : 39.55% | 1-1 @ 12.65% ( 0-0 @ 7.79% ( 2-2 @ 5.14% ( 3-3 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.61% | 0-1 @ 9.47% ( 1-2 @ 7.69% ( 0-2 @ 5.76% ( 1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0-3 @ 2.33% ( 2-3 @ 2.08% ( 1-4 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.43% Total : 33.83% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
| 1 | S | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | I | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | S | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | T | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5 | R | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Braga | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Porto | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | PortimonensePortimonense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 4 |
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