Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 36.13%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 35.09% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.56%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 1-0 (11.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Moreirense in this match.