

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 36.68%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 36.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (6.48%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 0-1 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Famalicao |
| 36.68% ( | 27.1% ( | 36.22% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.58% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.22% ( | 54.78% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.91% ( | 76.09% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.26% ( | 28.73% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.43% ( | 64.57% ( |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.98% ( | 29.01% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.08% ( | 64.92% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Famalicao |
| 1-0 @ 10.39% ( 2-1 @ 8.02% ( 2-0 @ 6.48% ( 3-1 @ 3.34% ( 3-0 @ 2.7% ( 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 4-1 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 2.64% Total : 36.67% | 1-1 @ 12.86% ( 0-0 @ 8.34% ( 2-2 @ 4.96% ( Other @ 0.94% Total : 27.1% | 0-1 @ 10.31% ( 1-2 @ 7.96% ( 0-2 @ 6.38% ( 1-3 @ 3.28% ( 0-3 @ 2.63% ( 2-3 @ 2.05% ( 1-4 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 2.58% Total : 36.21% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 27 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 73 | 23 | 50 | 65 |
| 2 | Benfica | 26 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 62 | 20 | 42 | 62 |
| 3 | Porto | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 21 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Braga | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 23 | 21 | 56 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 46 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 39 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 37 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 43 | -8 | 36 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
| 11 | Nacional | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 29 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 29 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 29 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 23 |
| 16 | AVS | 27 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 17 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 46 | -29 | 15 |
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