

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 58.14%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 18.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.51%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (6.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 58.14% ( | 23.8% ( | 18.06% ( |
| Both teams to score 46.16% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.51% ( | 53.48% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.99% ( | 75% ( |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.81% ( | 18.18% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.82% ( | 49.18% ( |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.42% ( | 43.58% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.22% ( | 79.78% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 1-0 @ 13.5% 2-0 @ 11.51% ( 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 3-0 @ 6.54% ( 3-1 @ 5.43% ( 4-0 @ 2.79% ( 4-1 @ 2.32% ( 3-2 @ 2.26% ( 4-2 @ 0.96% ( 5-0 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.3% Total : 58.12% | 1-1 @ 11.22% ( 0-0 @ 7.93% ( 2-2 @ 3.97% ( Other @ 0.68% Total : 23.8% | 0-1 @ 6.58% ( 1-2 @ 4.66% ( 0-2 @ 2.73% ( 1-3 @ 1.29% ( 2-3 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 1.7% Total : 18.06% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 25 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 67 | 22 | 45 | 59 |
| 2 | Benfica | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 18 | 38 | 56 |
| 3 | Porto | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 20 | 29 | 50 |
| 4 | Braga | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 22 | 19 | 50 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 40 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 34 | 27 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 36 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 35 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 31 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 29 |
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 28 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 28 |
| 13 | Nacional | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 26 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 23 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 23 |
| 16 | AVS | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 25 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 17 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 42 | -26 | 15 |
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