

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 50.12%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 25.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.93%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 50.12% ( | 24.81% ( | 25.07% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.49% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.13% ( | 49.86% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.13% ( | 71.86% ( |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.09% ( | 19.91% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.95% ( | 52.04% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.54% ( | 34.45% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.83% ( | 71.16% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 1-0 @ 11.07% ( 2-1 @ 9.52% ( 2-0 @ 8.93% ( 3-1 @ 5.12% ( 3-0 @ 4.81% ( 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 4-1 @ 2.07% ( 4-0 @ 1.94% ( 4-2 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 2.82% Total : 50.11% | 1-1 @ 11.79% ( 0-0 @ 6.86% ( 2-2 @ 5.07% ( 3-3 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.8% | 0-1 @ 7.31% ( 1-2 @ 6.29% ( 0-2 @ 3.89% ( 1-3 @ 2.23% ( 2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0-3 @ 1.38% ( Other @ 2.17% Total : 25.07% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 88 | 27 | 61 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 84 | 28 | 56 | 80 |
| 3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 30 | 35 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 66 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 57 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 47 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 53 | -5 | 46 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 38 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 38 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 60 | -35 | 27 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 59 | -35 | 24 |
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