

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 41.33%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (9.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Arouca |
| 32.04% ( | 26.63% ( | 41.33% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.35% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.52% ( | 53.48% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25% ( | 75% ( |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.95% ( | 31.05% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.63% ( | 67.37% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.48% ( | 25.52% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.63% ( | 60.37% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 9.27% ( 2-1 @ 7.4% ( 2-0 @ 5.42% ( 3-1 @ 2.89% ( 3-0 @ 2.11% ( 3-2 @ 1.97% ( Other @ 2.99% Total : 32.04% | 1-1 @ 12.65% ( 0-0 @ 7.93% ( 2-2 @ 5.05% ( Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.62% | 0-1 @ 10.82% ( 1-2 @ 8.64% ( 0-2 @ 7.39% ( 1-3 @ 3.94% ( 0-3 @ 3.37% ( 2-3 @ 2.3% ( 1-4 @ 1.34% ( 0-4 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 2.38% Total : 41.33% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 78 | 25 | 53 | 72 |
| 2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 74 | 25 | 49 | 72 |
| 3 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 51 | 25 | 26 | 63 |
| 4 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 62 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 48 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 35 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 33 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 33 |
| 13 | Nacional | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 32 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 26 |
| 16 | AVS | 30 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 24 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 21 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 21 |
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