

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 49.42%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 26.1% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Estrela Amadora | 
| 49.42% (  -0.39) | 24.47% (  0.11) | 26.1% (  0.28) | 
| Both teams to score 54.53% (  -0.1) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 52.36% (  -0.25) | 47.64% (  0.24) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 30.16% (  -0.23) | 69.84% (  0.23) | 
| Arouca Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 80.68% (  -0.25) | 19.32% (  0.25) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.92% (  -0.41) | 51.08% (  0.41) | 
| Estrela Amadora Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 67.59% (  0.09) | 32.41% (  -0.09) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.07% (  0.1) | 68.92% (  -0.1) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Arouca | Draw | Estrela Amadora | 
| 1-0 @ 10.29% (  0.02) 2-1 @ 9.53% (  -0.03) 2-0 @ 8.46% (  -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.23% (  -0.06) 3-0 @ 4.64% (  -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.94% (  -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.15% (  -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.91% (  -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.21% (  -0.02) Other @ 3.06% Total : 49.42% | 1-1 @ 11.59% (  0.05) 0-0 @ 6.26% (  0.06) 2-2 @ 5.37% (  -0) 3-3 @ 1.11% (  -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.47% | 0-1 @ 7.05% (  0.09) 1-2 @ 6.53% (  0.05) 0-2 @ 3.97% (  0.06) 1-3 @ 2.45% (  0.02) 2-3 @ 2.02% (  0) 0-3 @ 1.49% (  0.03) Other @ 2.58% Total : 26.1% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 78 | 25 | 53 | 72 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 74 | 25 | 49 | 72 | 
| 3 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 51 | 25 | 26 | 63 | 
| 4 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 62 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 48 | 
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 47 | 
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 43 | 
| 8 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 41 | 
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 | 
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 35 | 
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 33 | 
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 33 | 
| 13 | Nacional | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 32 | 
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 26 | 
| 16 | AVS | 30 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 24 | 
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 21 | 
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 21 | 
| > Primeira Liga Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
