

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 37.65%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Arouca | 
| 37.65% (  -0.08) | 26.31% (  0.02) | 36.04% (  0.07) | 
| Both teams to score 53.18% (  -0.05) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 48.49% (  -0.07) | 51.5% (  0.07) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 26.69% (  -0.06) | 73.31% (  0.06) | 
| Rio Ave Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.39% (  -0.08) | 26.61% (  0.08) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.17% (  -0.11) | 61.83% (  0.11) | 
| Arouca Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 72.46% (  0.01) | 27.54% (  -0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.95% (  0.01) | 63.05% (  -0.01) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Rio Ave | Draw | Arouca | 
| 1-0 @ 9.7% (  0.01) 2-1 @ 8.28% (  -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.42% (  -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.66% (  -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.84% (  -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.36% (  -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.21% (  -0.01) 4-0 @ 0.94% (  -0.01) Other @ 2.25% Total : 37.65% | 1-1 @ 12.51% (  0.01) 0-0 @ 7.33% (  0.02) 2-2 @ 5.34% (  -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.01% (  -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.31% | 0-1 @ 9.45% (  0.03) 1-2 @ 8.07% (  0.01) 0-2 @ 6.09% (  0.02) 1-3 @ 3.47% (  0) 0-3 @ 2.62% (  0.01) 2-3 @ 2.3% (  -0) 1-4 @ 1.12% (  0) Other @ 2.93% Total : 36.04% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 | 
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 | 
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 | 
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 | 
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 | 
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 | 
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 | 
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 | 
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 | 
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 | 
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 | 
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 | 
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 | 
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 | 
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 | 
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