

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 44.5%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 27.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.97%) and 2-1 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.05%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Valencia | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 44.5% ( | 28.43% ( | 27.07% ( |
| Both teams to score 43.85% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.16% ( | 61.84% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.38% ( | 81.62% ( |
| Valencia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.27% ( | 27.73% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.7% ( | 63.3% ( |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.68% ( | 39.32% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.98% ( | 76.02% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Valencia | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 13.98% ( 2-0 @ 8.97% ( 2-1 @ 8.37% ( 3-0 @ 3.84% ( 3-1 @ 3.58% ( 3-2 @ 1.67% ( 4-0 @ 1.23% ( 4-1 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 1.71% Total : 44.49% | 1-1 @ 13.05% ( 0-0 @ 10.9% ( 2-2 @ 3.91% ( Other @ 0.56% Total : 28.42% | 0-1 @ 10.17% ( 1-2 @ 6.09% ( 0-2 @ 4.75% ( 1-3 @ 1.9% ( 0-3 @ 1.48% ( 2-3 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 1.46% Total : 27.07% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Barcelona | 32 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 88 | 32 | 56 | 73 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 31 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 64 | 31 | 33 | 66 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 32 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 53 | 27 | 26 | 63 |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 31 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 49 | 25 | 24 | 57 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 53 | 40 | 13 | 51 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 42 | 39 | 3 | 48 |
| 7 | Mallorca | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 44 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 43 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 41 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 31 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 41 |
| 11 | Getafe | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 39 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 38 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 31 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 38 |
| 14 | Valencia | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 38 |
| 15 | Sevilla | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 36 |
| 16 | GironaGirona | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 34 |
| 17 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 32 |
| 18 | AlavesAlaves | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 30 |
| 19 | Leganes | 32 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 29 |
| 20 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 31 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 73 | -52 | 16 |
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