

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Moreirense win with a probability of 39.28%. A win for Casa Pia has a probability of 33.05% and a draw has a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Casa Pia win is 1-0 (10.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.05%).
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Moreirense |
| 33.05% ( | 27.67% ( | 39.28% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.46% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.73% ( | 57.27% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.89% ( | 78.11% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.7% ( | 32.3% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.2% ( | 68.8% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.59% ( | 28.41% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.84% ( | 64.16% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 10.37% ( 2-1 @ 7.37% ( 2-0 @ 5.86% ( 3-1 @ 2.78% ( 3-0 @ 2.21% ( 3-2 @ 1.75% ( Other @ 2.71% Total : 33.05% | 1-1 @ 13.05% ( 0-0 @ 9.18% ( 2-2 @ 4.64% ( Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.67% | 0-1 @ 11.54% ( 1-2 @ 8.21% ( 0-2 @ 7.27% ( 1-3 @ 3.45% ( 0-3 @ 3.05% ( 2-3 @ 1.95% ( 1-4 @ 1.08% ( 0-4 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 1.77% Total : 39.27% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
| 2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
| 3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
| 4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
| 12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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