

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 48.11%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 26.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.26%) and 0-2 (8.92%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Moreirense |
| 26.06% ( | 25.83% ( | 48.11% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.3% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.82% ( | 53.18% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.25% ( | 74.75% ( |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.58% ( | 35.42% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.82% ( | 72.18% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.88% ( | 22.11% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.51% ( | 55.48% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 8.13% ( 2-1 @ 6.37% ( 2-0 @ 4.22% ( 3-1 @ 2.2% ( 3-2 @ 1.66% ( 3-0 @ 1.46% ( Other @ 2.02% Total : 26.06% | 1-1 @ 12.26% ( 0-0 @ 7.83% ( 2-2 @ 4.8% ( Other @ 0.92% Total : 25.82% | 0-1 @ 11.81% ( 1-2 @ 9.26% ( 0-2 @ 8.92% ( 1-3 @ 4.66% ( 0-3 @ 4.49% ( 2-3 @ 2.42% ( 1-4 @ 1.76% ( 0-4 @ 1.69% ( 2-4 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 2.21% Total : 48.11% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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