

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 56.33%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 19.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.37%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Estrela Amadora | 
| 56.33% (  0.05) | 24% (  -0.01) | 19.67% (  -0.05) | 
| Both teams to score 48.19% (  -0.05) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 47.83% (  -0.02) | 52.16% (  0.02) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 26.12% (  -0.02) | 73.88% (  0.02) | 
| Moreirense Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 81.64% (  0.01) | 18.36% (  -0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.51% (  0.02) | 49.48% (  -0.02) | 
| Estrela Amadora Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 59.03% (  -0.07) | 40.97% (  0.07) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.47% (  -0.06) | 77.53% (  0.06) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Moreirense | Draw | Estrela Amadora | 
| 1-0 @ 12.75% (  0.02) 2-0 @ 10.8% (  0.02) 2-1 @ 9.64% (  -0) 3-0 @ 6.11% (  0.01) 3-1 @ 5.45% (  0) 4-0 @ 2.59% (  0.01) 3-2 @ 2.43% (  -0) 4-1 @ 2.31% (  0) 4-2 @ 1.03% (  -0) Other @ 3.23% Total : 56.33% | 1-1 @ 11.37% (  -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.52% (  0.01) 2-2 @ 4.3% (  -0.01) Other @ 0.8% Total : 23.99% | 0-1 @ 6.71% (  -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.08% (  -0.01) 0-2 @ 3% (  -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.51% (  -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.28% (  -0) Other @ 2.09% Total : 19.67% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 61 | 20 | 41 | 53 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 23 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 18 | 35 | 53 | 
| 3 | Porto | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 49 | 19 | 30 | 50 | 
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 22 | 18 | 47 | 
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 39 | 
| 6 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 36 | 
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 35 | 
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 34 | 
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 31 | 
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 29 | 
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 27 | 
| 12 | Nacional | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 26 | 
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 25 | 
| 14 | AVS | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 23 | 
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 22 | 
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 22 | 
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 24 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 34 | -19 | 16 | 
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 40 | -25 | 15 | 
| > Primeira Liga Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
