

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 56.33%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 19.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.37%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 56.33% ( | 24% ( | 19.67% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.19% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.83% ( | 52.16% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.12% ( | 73.88% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.64% ( | 18.36% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.51% ( | 49.48% ( |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.03% ( | 40.97% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.47% ( | 77.53% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 1-0 @ 12.75% ( 2-0 @ 10.8% ( 2-1 @ 9.64% ( 3-0 @ 6.11% ( 3-1 @ 5.45% ( 4-0 @ 2.59% ( 3-2 @ 2.43% ( 4-1 @ 2.31% ( 4-2 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 3.23% Total : 56.33% | 1-1 @ 11.37% ( 0-0 @ 7.52% ( 2-2 @ 4.3% ( Other @ 0.8% Total : 23.99% | 0-1 @ 6.71% ( 1-2 @ 5.08% ( 0-2 @ 3% ( 1-3 @ 1.51% ( 2-3 @ 1.28% ( Other @ 2.09% Total : 19.67% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 61 | 20 | 41 | 53 |
| 2 | Benfica | 23 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 18 | 35 | 53 |
| 3 | Porto | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 49 | 19 | 30 | 50 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 22 | 18 | 47 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 39 |
| 6 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 36 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 35 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 34 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 31 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 29 |
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 27 |
| 12 | Nacional | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 25 |
| 14 | AVS | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 23 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 22 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 22 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 24 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 34 | -19 | 16 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 40 | -25 | 15 |
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