

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 58.36%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 19.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.9%) and 0-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Moreirense win it was 2-1 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 19.81% ( | 21.83% ( | 58.36% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.23% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.1% ( | 42.91% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.69% ( | 65.31% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.53% ( | 35.47% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.77% ( | 72.24% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.6% ( | 14.41% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.68% ( | 42.32% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 5.32% ( 1-0 @ 5.3% ( 2-0 @ 2.75% ( 3-1 @ 1.84% ( 3-2 @ 1.78% 3-0 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 1.89% Total : 19.81% | 1-1 @ 10.26% ( 2-2 @ 5.15% ( 0-0 @ 5.11% ( 3-3 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.83% | 1-2 @ 9.94% ( 0-1 @ 9.9% ( 0-2 @ 9.59% ( 1-3 @ 6.42% ( 0-3 @ 6.2% ( 2-3 @ 3.33% ( 1-4 @ 3.11% ( 0-4 @ 3% ( 2-4 @ 1.61% ( 1-5 @ 1.21% ( 0-5 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 2.89% Total : 58.36% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 78 | 25 | 53 | 72 |
| 2 | Benfica | 29 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 69 |
| 3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 62 |
| 4 | Braga | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 49 | 25 | 24 | 60 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 48 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 40 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 35 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 33 |
| 12 | Nacional | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 32 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 30 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 26 |
| 16 | AVS | 29 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 22 | 48 | -26 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 21 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 21 |
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