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Ligue 1

Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 30
Apr 19, 2025 at 8.05pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Montpellier

Marseille
5 - 1
Montpellier

Greenwood (8' pen., 67'), Chancy Ndollo Bille (60' og.), Rowe (74'), Rabiot (90')
Rongier (15'), Rabiot (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Mincarelli (83')
Nzingoula (46'), Mouanga (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Last Game: Monaco 3-0 Marseille
Saturday, April 12 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Montpellier HSC

All competitions
Last Game: Angers 2-0 Montpellier
Sunday, April 13 at 4.15pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 70.66%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 12.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawMontpellier HSC
70.66% (-0.11799999999999 -0.12)16.88% (0.021000000000001 0.02)12.47% (0.097999999999999 0.1)
Both teams to score 55.61% (0.253 0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.87% (0.167 0.17)34.13% (-0.167 -0.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.99% (0.188 0.19)56.01% (-0.188 -0.19)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.41% (0.015999999999991 0.02)8.59% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.32% (0.038999999999987 0.04)29.67% (-0.038 -0.04)
Montpellier HSC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.84% (0.265 0.27)39.16% (-0.265 -0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.12% (0.248 0.25)75.88% (-0.24799999999999 -0.25)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 70.65%
    Montpellier HSC 12.47%
    Draw 16.88%
MarseilleDrawMontpellier HSC
2-0 @ 10.13% (-0.069999999999999 -0.07)
2-1 @ 9.5% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-0 @ 8.29% (-0.052 -0.05)
1-0 @ 8.26% (-0.065 -0.06)
3-1 @ 7.77% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
4-0 @ 5.09% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-1 @ 4.77% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.64% (0.029 0.03)
5-0 @ 2.5% (-0.012 -0.01)
5-1 @ 2.34% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-2 @ 2.24% (0.02 0.02)
5-2 @ 1.1% (0.011 0.01)
6-0 @ 1.02% (-0.004 -0)
6-1 @ 0.96% (0.003 0)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 70.65%
1-1 @ 7.74% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.45% (0.033 0.03)
0-0 @ 3.36% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.14% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 16.88%
1-2 @ 3.63% (0.024 0.02)
0-1 @ 3.15% (-0.004 -0)
0-2 @ 1.48% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.39% (0.02 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.13% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 1.68%
Total : 12.47%

How you voted: Marseille vs Montpellier

Marseille
82.4%
Draw
11.8%
Montpellier HSC
5.9%
34
Head to Head
Oct 20, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Montpellier
0-5
Marseille

Nzingoula (28')
Dzodic (64')
Wahi (1'), Harit (36'), Hojbjerg (40'), Greenwood (58'), Henrique (73')
Cornelius (19'), Rowe (51'), Sternal (90')
> Preview
Feb 25, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 23
Marseille
4-1
Montpellier
Ndiaye (31'), Aubameyang (43', 62' pen.), Sacko (82' og.)
Aubameyang (32'), Harit (65')
Al Tamari (5')
Sylla (32'), Hefti (48'), Sagnan (75'), Kouyate (87')
> Preview
Dec 20, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 17
Montpellier
1-1
Marseille
Fayad (14')
Jullien (44'), Savanier (90+3')
Veretout (52')
Gigot (55')
> Preview
Mar 31, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 29
Marseille
1-1
Montpellier
Guendouzi (44' pen.)
Nordin (12')
> Preview
Jan 2, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 17
Montpellier
1-2
Marseille
Savanier (90+1' pen.)
Tavares (47'), Esteve (61' og.)
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CParis Saint-GermainPSG34266292355784
2Marseille34205974472765
3MonacoMonaco34187963412261
4Nice34179866412560
5Lille34179852361660
6Lyon341761165461957
7StrasbourgStrasbourg34169956441257
8Lens34157124239352
9Brest34155145259-750
10Toulouse34119144443142
11Auxerre34119144851-342
12Rennes34132195150141
13NantesNantes34812143952-1336
14Angers34106183253-2136
15Le HavreLe Havre34104204071-3134
16Reims3489173347-1433
RSaint-EtienneSt Etienne3486203977-3830
RMontpellier HSCMontpellier3444262379-5616
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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