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Ligue 1

AJ Auxerre
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 27
Mar 30, 2025 at 4.15pm UK
Stade de l'Abbe Deschamps
Montpellier

Auxerre
1 - 0
Montpellier

Aye (82')
Owusu (18'), Akpa (35'), Massengo (78')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Meite (47')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Auxerre and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Auxerre

All competitions
Last Game: Nice 1-1 Auxerre
Friday, March 14 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Montpellier HSC

All competitions
Last Game: Lille 1-0 Montpellier
Saturday, March 8 at 6pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auxerre win with a probability of 51.78%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 23.87%.

The most likely scoreline for an Auxerre win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 0-1 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Auxerre in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Auxerre.

Result
AuxerreDrawMontpellier HSC
51.78% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)24.34% (0.462 0.46)23.87% (-0.451 -0.45)
Both teams to score 52.7% (-1.977 -1.98)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.02% (-2.376 -2.38)48.98% (2.378 2.38)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.93% (-2.191 -2.19)71.07% (2.193 2.19)
Auxerre Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.1% (-0.907 -0.91)18.9% (0.907 0.91)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.61% (-1.533 -1.53)50.38% (1.535 1.54)
Montpellier HSC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.98% (-1.692 -1.69)35.01% (1.694 1.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.24% (-1.818 -1.82)71.76% (1.821 1.82)
Score Analysis
    Auxerre 51.78%
    Montpellier HSC 23.87%
    Draw 24.33%
AuxerreDrawMontpellier HSC
1-0 @ 11.02% (0.74 0.74)
2-1 @ 9.64% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-0 @ 9.18% (0.365 0.36)
3-1 @ 5.35% (-0.189 -0.19)
3-0 @ 5.1% (0.058 0.06)
3-2 @ 2.81% (-0.236 -0.24)
4-1 @ 2.23% (-0.147 -0.15)
4-0 @ 2.13% (-0.038 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.17% (-0.136 -0.14)
Other @ 3.15%
Total : 51.78%
1-1 @ 11.56% (0.26 0.26)
0-0 @ 6.62% (0.622 0.62)
2-2 @ 5.06% (-0.269 -0.27)
3-3 @ 0.98% (-0.133 -0.13)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 24.33%
0-1 @ 6.94% (0.357 0.36)
1-2 @ 6.07% (-0.138 -0.14)
0-2 @ 3.64% (0.023 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.12% (-0.151 -0.15)
2-3 @ 1.77% (-0.182 -0.18)
0-3 @ 1.28% (-0.051 -0.05)
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 23.87%

How you voted: Auxerre vs Montpellier

Auxerre
76.5%
Draw
17.6%
Montpellier HSC
5.9%
17
Head to Head
Sep 22, 2024 4pm
Gameweek 5
Montpellier
3-2
Auxerre
Adams (65', 75'), Sagnan (71')
Nzingoula (33'), Omeragic (65'), Adams (76')
Traore (18'), Onaiwu (72')
Owusu (48'), Sinayoko (57'), Diomande (61'), Perrin (66')
> Preview
Jan 29, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 20
Auxerre
0-2
Montpellier
Mavididi (62', 80')
> Preview
Aug 21, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 3
Montpellier
1-2
Auxerre
Sakho (39')
Sakho (73')
Fayad (46'), Savanier (90+3')
Da Costa (70'), Autret (75' pen.)
da Costa (5'), Joly (43')
Niang (51'), da Costa (88')
> Preview
May 20, 2012 3pm
Auxerre
1-2
Montpellier
Aug 6, 2011 3pm
Montpellier
3-1
Auxerre
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CParis Saint-GermainPSG34266292355784
2Marseille34205974472765
3MonacoMonaco34187963412261
4Nice34179866412560
5Lille34179852361660
6Lyon341761165461957
7StrasbourgStrasbourg34169956441257
8Lens34157124239352
9Brest34155145259-750
10Toulouse34119144443142
11Auxerre34119144851-342
12Rennes34132195150141
13NantesNantes34812143952-1336
14Angers34106183253-2136
15Le HavreLe Havre34104204071-3134
16Reims3489173347-1433
RSaint-EtienneSt Etienne3486203977-3830
RMontpellier HSCMontpellier3444262379-5616
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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