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Ligue 1

Montpellier
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 22
Feb 16, 2025 at 2pm UK
Stade de la Mosson
Lyon

Montpellier
1 - 4
Lyon

Coulibaly (38')
Coulibaly (29'), Delort (34'), Sainte-Luce (86')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Mikautadze (3'), Nuamah (50'), Tolisso (53'), Lacazette (73')
Tagliafico (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Montpellier HSC and Lyon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Montpellier HSC

All competitions
Last Game: Strasbourg 2-0 Montpellier
Sunday, February 9 at 4.15pm in Ligue 1

Lyon

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Lyon 4-0 Reims
Sunday, February 9 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 60.98%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 18.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.35%) and 0-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.5%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 2-1 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.

Result
Montpellier HSCDrawLyon
18.48% (-0.628 -0.63)20.54% (-0.1 -0.1)60.98% (0.73 0.73)
Both teams to score 57.3% (-0.84 -0.84)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.96% (-0.554 -0.55)39.03% (0.555 0.56)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.64% (-0.582 -0.58)61.35% (0.584 0.58)
Montpellier HSC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.4% (-0.985 -0.98)34.6% (0.987 0.99)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.68% (-1.059 -1.06)71.31% (1.061 1.06)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.62% (0.036000000000001 0.04)12.38% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.76% (0.075000000000003 0.08)38.24% (-0.073 -0.07)
Score Analysis
    Montpellier HSC 18.48%
    Lyon 60.98%
    Draw 20.54%
Montpellier HSCDrawLyon
2-1 @ 5.04% (-0.135 -0.14)
1-0 @ 4.55% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 2.41% (-0.067 -0.07)
3-2 @ 1.86% (-0.099 -0.1)
3-1 @ 1.78% (-0.098 -0.1)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 18.48%
1-1 @ 9.5% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.27% (-0.133 -0.13)
0-0 @ 4.28% (0.111 0.11)
3-3 @ 1.3% (-0.067 -0.07)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 20.54%
1-2 @ 9.92% (0.019 0.02)
0-2 @ 9.35% (0.266 0.27)
0-1 @ 8.95% (0.242 0.24)
1-3 @ 6.91% (0.022 0.02)
0-3 @ 6.51% (0.193 0.19)
2-3 @ 3.67% (-0.088 -0.09)
1-4 @ 3.61% (0.017 0.02)
0-4 @ 3.4% (0.105 0.11)
2-4 @ 1.92% (-0.043 -0.04)
1-5 @ 1.51% (0.0079999999999998 0.01)
0-5 @ 1.42% (0.046 0.05)
Other @ 3.83%
Total : 60.98%

How you voted: Montpellier vs Lyon

Montpellier HSC
12.0%
Draw
16.0%
Lyon
72.0%
25
Head to Head
Jan 4, 2025 8pm
Gameweek 16
Lyon
1-0
Montpellier
Fayad (90+1' og.)
Veretout (64'), Veretout (66')

Sagnan (50'), Maksimovic (64')
> Preview
Feb 11, 2024 4.05pm
Gameweek 21
Montpellier
1-2
Lyon
Nordin (23')
Ferri (90')
Lacazette (74'), Caqueret (82')
Tagliafico (28'), Orban (90')
> Preview
Aug 19, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 2
Lyon
1-4
Montpellier
Lacazette (69')
Diomande (13'), Lepenant (29'), Barcola (45+4'), Tagliafico (83')
Lacazette (80')
Nordin (20'), Al Tamari (39', 66'), Adams (89')
Kouyate (51')
> Preview
May 7, 2023 4.05pm
Gameweek 34
Lyon
5-4
Montpellier
Lacazette (31', 59', 82', 90+10' pen.), Lovren (70')
Wahi (40', 41', 53', 55')
> Preview
Oct 22, 2022 4pm
Gameweek 12
Montpellier
1-2
Lyon
Wahi (70')
Aouar (33'), Lacazette (90')
> Preview