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Ligue 1

Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 28
Apr 6, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Toulouse

Marseille
3 - 2
Toulouse

Suazo (21' og.), Greenwood (57'), Rabiot (64')
Greenwood (24'), Nadir (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Magri (28'), Sierro (76')
Babicka (32'), Magri (56'), Casseres Jr (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Last Game: Reims 3-1 Marseille
Saturday, March 29 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Toulouse

All competitions
Last Game: Toulouse 2-4 Brest
Sunday, March 30 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 53.04%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 24.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawToulouse
53.04% (0.782 0.78)22.75% (-0.416 -0.42)24.21% (-0.365 -0.37)
Both teams to score 58.34% (1.016 1.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.3% (1.532 1.53)41.7% (-1.53 -1.53)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.9% (1.527 1.53)64.1% (-1.526 -1.53)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.25% (0.828 0.83)15.74% (-0.827 -0.83)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.15% (1.507 1.51)44.85% (-1.505 -1.51)
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.24% (0.53099999999999 0.53)30.75% (-0.529 -0.53)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.98% (0.617 0.62)67.02% (-0.61500000000001 -0.62)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 53.04%
    Toulouse 24.21%
    Draw 22.75%
MarseilleDrawToulouse
2-1 @ 9.76% (0.025 0.03)
1-0 @ 8.95% (-0.367 -0.37)
2-0 @ 8.27% (-0.101 -0.1)
3-1 @ 6.01% (0.181 0.18)
3-0 @ 5.1% (0.081 0.08)
3-2 @ 3.55% (0.157 0.16)
4-1 @ 2.78% (0.158 0.16)
4-0 @ 2.36% (0.102 0.1)
4-2 @ 1.64% (0.115 0.12)
5-1 @ 1.03% (0.086 0.09)
Other @ 3.6%
Total : 53.04%
1-1 @ 10.55% (-0.27 -0.27)
2-2 @ 5.75% (0.097 0.1)
0-0 @ 4.84% (-0.341 -0.34)
3-3 @ 1.39% (0.08 0.08)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 22.75%
1-2 @ 6.22% (-0.068000000000001 -0.07)
0-1 @ 5.71% (-0.314 -0.31)
0-2 @ 3.37% (-0.134 -0.13)
1-3 @ 2.45% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.26% (0.071 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.32% (-0.033 -0.03)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 24.21%

How you voted: Marseille vs Toulouse

Marseille
84.2%
Draw
12.3%
Toulouse
3.5%
57
Head to Head
Aug 31, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 3
Toulouse
1-3
Marseille
Babicka (90')
Casseres Jr (44'), Donnum (49'), Babicka (73'), Sierro (82'), Martinez (86')
Magri (27')
Greenwood (16', 17'), Cresswell (52' og.)
Hojbjerg (10'), Brassier (73')
> Preview
Apr 21, 2024 6.15pm
Gameweek 30
Toulouse
2-2
Marseille
Nicolaisen (45+2'), Gboho (82')
Diarra (39')
Onana (38'), Moumbagna (90+6')
Murillo (33'), Ounahi (47')
> Preview
Sep 17, 2023 4.05pm
Gameweek 5
Marseille
0-0
Toulouse
Correa (64'), Marcelino (80+80'), Harit (89')
Schmidt (4'), Desler (45'), Magri (77'), Restes (79'), Bangre (90+5')
> Preview
Feb 19, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 24
Toulouse
2-3
Marseille
Dallinga (3'), Onaiwu (87')
Mbemba (52'), Under (59'), Tavares (78')
> Preview
Dec 29, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 16
Marseille
6-1
Toulouse
Rongier (13'), Nicolaisen (41' og.), Kolasinac (51'), Payet (61'), Under (80' pen.), Tavares (82')
Van den Boomen (66' pen.)
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CParis Saint-GermainPSG34266292355784
2Marseille34205974472765
3MonacoMonaco34187963412261
4Nice34179866412560
5Lille34179852361660
6Lyon341761165461957
7StrasbourgStrasbourg34169956441257
8Lens34157124239352
9Brest34155145259-750
10Toulouse34119144443142
11Auxerre34119144851-342
12Rennes34132195150141
13NantesNantes34812143952-1336
14Angers34106183253-2136
15Le HavreLe Havre34104204071-3134
16Reims3489173347-1433
RSaint-EtienneSt Etienne3486203977-3830
RMontpellier HSCMontpellier3444262379-5616
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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