Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 28

Apr 6, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
3 - 2
Toulouse

Suazo (21' og.), Greenwood (57'), Rabiot (64')
Greenwood (24'), Nadir (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Magri (28'), Sierro (76')
Babicka (32'), Magri (56'), Casseres Jr (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Last Game: Reims 3-1 Marseille
Saturday, March 29 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Toulouse

All competitions

Last Game: Toulouse 2-4 Brest
Sunday, March 30 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 53.04%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 24.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Toulouse
53.04% ( 0.78)	22.75% ( -0.42)	24.21% ( -0.37)

Both teams to score 58.34% (

1.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.3% (

1.53)

41.7% (

-1.53)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.9% (

1.53)

64.1% (

-1.53)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.25% (

0.83)

15.74% (

-0.83)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.15% (

1.51)

44.85% (

-1.51)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.24% (

0.53)

30.75% (

-0.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.98% (

0.62)

67.02% (

-0.62)

Score Analysis

Marseille 53.04%

Toulouse 24.21%

Draw 22.75%

Marseille	Draw	Toulouse
2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.95% ( -0.37) 2-0 @ 8.27% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 6.01% ( 0.18) 3-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.16) 4-1 @ 2.78% ( 0.16) 4-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.12) 5-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.09) Other @ 3.6% Total : 53.04%	1-1 @ 10.55% ( -0.27) 2-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 4.84% ( -0.34) 3-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.75%	1-2 @ 6.22% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0.31) 0-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.88% Total : 24.21%