Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 41.31%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.54%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 2-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Toulouse | Draw | Monaco |
| 33.92% ( | 24.77% ( | 41.31% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.09% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.98% ( | 45.03% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.62% ( | 67.38% ( |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.29% ( | 25.71% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.37% ( | 60.63% ( |
| Monaco Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.2% ( | 21.8% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.99% ( | 55.01% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Toulouse | Draw | Monaco |
| 2-1 @ 7.88% ( 1-0 @ 7.61% ( 2-0 @ 5.17% ( 3-1 @ 3.57% ( 3-2 @ 2.72% ( 3-0 @ 2.34% ( 4-1 @ 1.21% ( 4-2 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 2.51% Total : 33.92% | 1-1 @ 11.59% 2-2 @ 6% ( 0-0 @ 5.61% ( 3-3 @ 1.38% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.77% | 1-2 @ 8.83% ( 0-1 @ 8.54% ( 0-2 @ 6.5% ( 1-3 @ 4.49% 0-3 @ 3.3% ( 2-3 @ 3.05% ( 1-4 @ 1.71% 0-4 @ 1.26% 2-4 @ 1.16% Other @ 2.48% Total : 41.31% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 35 | 57 | 84 |
| 2 | Marseille | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 74 | 47 | 27 | 65 |
| 3 | MonacoMonaco | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 61 |
| 4 | Nice | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 66 | 41 | 25 | 60 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 60 |
| 6 | Lyon | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 57 |
| 7 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 56 | 44 | 12 | 57 |
| 8 | Lens | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 42 | 39 | 3 | 52 |
| 9 | Brest | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 50 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 44 | 43 | 1 | 42 |
| 11 | Auxerre | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 42 |
| 12 | Rennes | 34 | 13 | 2 | 19 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 41 |
| 13 | NantesNantes | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 39 | 52 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | Angers | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 36 |
| 15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 40 | 71 | -31 | 34 |
| 16 | Reims | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 33 |
| R | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 39 | 77 | -38 | 30 |
| R | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 34 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 23 | 79 | -56 | 16 |
| > Ligue 1 Full Table | |||||||||
