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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 21
Feb 7, 2025 at 8.05pm UK
Parc des Princes
Monaco

PSG
4 - 1
Monaco

Vitinha (6'), Kvaratskhelia (54'), Dembele (57', 90')
Doue (28')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Zakaria (17')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Ligue 1 clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Monaco, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Le Mans 0-2 PSG
Tuesday, February 4 at 8.10pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Monaco 4-2 Auxerre
Saturday, February 1 at 6pm in Ligue 1

We said: Paris Saint-Germain 3-2 Monaco

This PSG side is almost unrecognisable to the one that was struggling to string two results together earlier in the campaign, and they will fancy themselves at extending their unbeaten run in the league this season here, especially after recording two wins over Monaco in the last six weeks. However, Monaco are the only club to have won more than 40 games against PSG in their history (48), and have scored on 12 of their last 13 trips to the Parc des Princes, so they should certainly offer a stern test, even if they do just fall short. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 62.71%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Monaco had a probability of 18.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.88%) and 3-1 (7.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.12%), while for a Monaco win it was 1-2 (4.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-GermainDrawMonaco
62.71% (0.169 0.17) 18.89% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09) 18.4% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)
Both teams to score 63.38% (0.166 0.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
68.87% (0.282 0.28)31.13% (-0.281 -0.28)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
47.46% (0.335 0.34)52.54% (-0.335 -0.34)
Paris Saint-Germain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.41% (0.122 0.12)9.59% (-0.1209 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.93% (0.282 0.28)32.07% (-0.281 -0.28)
Monaco Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.1% (0.090000000000003 0.09)29.9% (-0.089000000000002 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34% (0.10899999999999 0.11)65.99% (-0.10899999999999 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Paris Saint-Germain 62.71%
    Monaco 18.4%
    Draw 18.89%
Paris Saint-GermainDrawMonaco
2-1 @ 9.51% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-0 @ 7.88% (-0.038 -0.04)
3-1 @ 7.44% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
1-0 @ 6.72% (-0.068 -0.07)
3-0 @ 6.16% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 4.49% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
4-1 @ 4.36% (0.036 0.04)
4-0 @ 3.61% (0.022 0.02)
4-2 @ 2.63% (0.028 0.03)
5-1 @ 2.04% (0.028 0.03)
5-0 @ 1.69% (0.019 0.02)
5-2 @ 1.23% (0.02 0.02)
4-3 @ 1.06% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 3.89%
Total : 62.71%
1-1 @ 8.12% (-0.061999999999999 -0.06)
2-2 @ 5.74%
0-0 @ 2.87% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-3 @ 1.81% (0.015 0.01)
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 18.89%
1-2 @ 4.9% (-0.026 -0.03)
0-1 @ 3.46% (-0.045 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.31% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
0-2 @ 2.09% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.97% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.67%
Total : 18.4%

How you voted: PSG vs Monaco

Paris Saint-Germain
79.2%
Draw
13.2%
Monaco
7.5%
106
Head to Head
Jan 5, 2025 4.30pm
Final
PSG
1-0
Monaco
Dembele (90+2')
Mendes (23'), Barcola (87')

Vanderson (35')
Dec 18, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 16
Monaco
2-4
PSG
Ben Seghir (53' pen.), Embolo (60')
Singo (13'), Camara (29')
Hutter (90+5')
Doue (24'), Dembele (64', 90+7'), Ramos (83')
Mar 1, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 24
Monaco
0-0
PSG
Nov 24, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 13
PSG
5-2
Monaco
Ramos (18'), Mbappe (39' pen.), Dembele (70'), Vitinha (72'), Kolo (90+6')
Minamino (22'), Balogun (75')
Singo (59')
Feb 11, 2023 4pm
Gameweek 23
Monaco
3-1
PSG
Golovin (4'), Ben Yedder (18', 45+2')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CParis Saint-GermainPSG31246184315378
2Marseille31184966432358
3Lille31168749321756
4MonacoMonaco31167858362255
5Lyon31166962422054
6Nice31159759392054
7StrasbourgStrasbourg31159751381354
8Lens31136123537-245
9Brest31135134953-444
10Auxerre31118124545041
11Rennes31122174644238
12Toulouse3198143839-135
13Reims3189143242-1033
14NantesNantes31711133550-1532
15Angers3186172950-2130
16Le HavreLe Havre3184193465-3128
17Saint-EtienneSt Etienne3176183471-3727
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier3144232271-4916


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