Champions League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 12, 2025 at 8pm UK
Stade Louis II.
Monaco0 - 1Benfica
We said: Monaco 1-1 Benfica
Monaco's poor form of late has come at an awful time, with clubs hunting them down in the battle for the top four in Ligue 1 and a playoff in Europe to navigate, but they still have the quality to be competitive in this tie. With four wins in their last five Champions League away games, Benfica have been competent travellers on the continent recently, but they may fall just short of winning three in a row on the road for the first time since the competition's rebranding here. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 47.78%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Monaco win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Monaco | Draw | Benfica |
28.58% ( -0.02) | 23.63% ( -0.14) | 47.78% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 59.42% ( 0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
