

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 68.94%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 11.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.95%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.16%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Benfica |
| 11.69% ( | 19.37% ( | 68.94% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.22% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.24% ( | 47.76% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.05% ( | 69.95% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.68% ( | 49.31% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 15.82% ( | 84.18% ( |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.24% ( | 12.76% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.97% ( | 39.02% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 4.45% ( 2-1 @ 3.24% ( 2-0 @ 1.57% ( Other @ 2.43% Total : 11.69% | 1-1 @ 9.16% ( 0-0 @ 6.29% ( 2-2 @ 3.33% ( Other @ 0.59% Total : 19.37% | 0-2 @ 13.33% ( 0-1 @ 12.95% ( 1-2 @ 9.43% ( 0-3 @ 9.15% ( 1-3 @ 6.47% ( 0-4 @ 4.71% ( 1-4 @ 3.33% ( 2-3 @ 2.29% ( 0-5 @ 1.94% ( 1-5 @ 1.37% ( 2-4 @ 1.18% ( Other @ 2.78% Total : 68.93% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 25 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 67 | 22 | 45 | 59 |
| 2 | Benfica | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 18 | 38 | 56 |
| 3 | Braga | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 53 |
| 4 | Porto | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 20 | 29 | 50 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 43 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 34 | 27 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 36 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 35 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 34 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 29 |
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 28 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 28 |
| 13 | Nacional | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 26 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 23 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 23 |
| 16 | AVS | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 17 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 42 | -26 | 15 |
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