

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 70.4%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 11.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.83%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.71%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 70.4% ( | 18.33% ( | 11.27% ( |
| Both teams to score 46.19% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.66% ( | 44.33% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.29% ( | 66.71% ( |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.64% ( | 11.36% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 63.93% ( | 36.07% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.11% ( | 47.89% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 16.85% ( | 83.15% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 2-0 @ 12.86% ( 1-0 @ 11.83% ( 2-1 @ 9.48% ( 3-0 @ 9.33% ( 3-1 @ 6.87% ( 4-0 @ 5.07% ( 4-1 @ 3.74% ( 3-2 @ 2.53% ( 5-0 @ 2.21% ( 5-1 @ 1.63% ( 4-2 @ 1.38% ( Other @ 3.48% Total : 70.39% | 1-1 @ 8.71% ( 0-0 @ 5.44% ( 2-2 @ 3.49% ( Other @ 0.69% Total : 18.33% | 0-1 @ 4.01% ( 1-2 @ 3.21% ( 0-2 @ 1.48% ( Other @ 2.58% Total : 11.27% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 |
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