

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 76.27%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 9.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-2 (2.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 76.27% ( | 14.61% ( | 9.11% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.62% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.97% ( | 33.03% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.24% ( | 54.75% ( |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.85% ( | 7.15% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 73.98% ( | 26.02% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.59% ( | 44.41% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.54% ( | 80.46% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 2-0 @ 11.04% ( 3-0 @ 9.72% ( 2-1 @ 8.97% ( 1-0 @ 8.38% ( 3-1 @ 7.89% ( 4-0 @ 6.41% ( 4-1 @ 5.2% ( 5-0 @ 3.38% ( 3-2 @ 3.2% ( 5-1 @ 2.74% ( 4-2 @ 2.11% ( 6-0 @ 1.49% ( 6-1 @ 1.21% ( 5-2 @ 1.11% ( Other @ 3.43% Total : 76.26% | 1-1 @ 6.8% ( 2-2 @ 3.64% ( 0-0 @ 3.18% ( Other @ 0.99% Total : 14.61% | 1-2 @ 2.76% ( 0-1 @ 2.58% ( 0-2 @ 1.05% ( 2-3 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 1.75% Total : 9.12% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 |
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