

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 76.27%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 9.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-2 (2.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia | 
| 76.27% (  1.77) | 14.61% (  -1.08) | 9.11% (  -0.69) | 
| Both teams to score 51.62% (  1.37) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 66.97% (  3.16) | 33.03% (  -3.16) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 45.24% (  3.55) | 54.75% (  -3.55) | 
| Benfica Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 92.85% (  1.11) | 7.15% (  -1.1) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 73.98% (  2.83) | 26.02% (  -2.83) | 
| Casa Pia Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 55.59% (  0.83) | 44.41% (  -0.82) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.54% (  0.66) | 80.46% (  -0.66) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia | 
| 2-0 @ 11.04% (  -0.57) 3-0 @ 9.72% (  0.06) 2-1 @ 8.97% (  -0.25) 1-0 @ 8.38% (  -0.94) 3-1 @ 7.89% (  0.22) 4-0 @ 6.41% (  0.38) 4-1 @ 5.2% (  0.42) 5-0 @ 3.38% (  0.38) 3-2 @ 3.2% (  0.16) 5-1 @ 2.74% (  0.36) 4-2 @ 2.11% (  0.22) 6-0 @ 1.49% (  0.24) 6-1 @ 1.21% (  0.22) 5-2 @ 1.11% (  0.17) Other @ 3.43% Total : 76.26% | 1-1 @ 6.8% (  -0.59) 2-2 @ 3.64% (  -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.18% (  -0.56) Other @ 0.99% Total : 14.61% | 1-2 @ 2.76% (  -0.17) 0-1 @ 2.58% (  -0.38) 0-2 @ 1.05% (  -0.13) 2-3 @ 0.99% (  0.02) Other @ 1.75% Total : 9.12% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 | 
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 | 
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 | 
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 | 
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 | 
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 | 
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 | 
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 | 
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