

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 53.56%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 24.45% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.9%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 53.56% ( | 21.98% ( | 24.45% ( |
| Both teams to score 61.34% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.14% ( | 37.86% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.88% ( | 60.12% ( |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.77% ( | 14.23% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.03% ( | 41.97% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.52% ( | 28.48% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.75% ( | 64.25% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 9.68% ( 1-0 @ 7.9% ( 2-0 @ 7.71% ( 3-1 @ 6.29% ( 3-0 @ 5.01% ( 3-2 @ 3.95% ( 4-1 @ 3.07% ( 4-0 @ 2.44% ( 4-2 @ 1.93% ( 5-1 @ 1.2% ( 5-0 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 3.45% Total : 53.56% | 1-1 @ 9.92% ( 2-2 @ 6.08% ( 0-0 @ 4.05% ( 3-3 @ 1.65% ( Other @ 0.28% Total : 21.98% | 1-2 @ 6.23% ( 0-1 @ 5.09% ( 0-2 @ 3.2% ( 1-3 @ 2.61% ( 2-3 @ 2.54% ( 0-3 @ 1.34% ( Other @ 3.45% Total : 24.45% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 33 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 79 | 20 | 59 | 84 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 31 | 38 | 71 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 53 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 41 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 32 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
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