Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.11%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 9.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.73%) and 3-0 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.57%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (3.09%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Chaves |
| 74.11% ( | 16% ( | 9.89% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.38% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.53% ( | 37.46% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.31% ( | 59.69% ( |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.35% ( | 8.65% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 70.18% ( | 29.82% ( |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.05% ( | 45.94% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.32% ( | 81.68% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Chaves |
| 2-0 @ 11.9% ( 1-0 @ 9.73% ( 3-0 @ 9.71% ( 2-1 @ 9.26% ( 3-1 @ 7.55% ( 4-0 @ 5.94% ( 4-1 @ 4.62% ( 3-2 @ 2.94% ( 5-0 @ 2.91% ( 5-1 @ 2.26% ( 4-2 @ 1.8% ( 6-0 @ 1.19% ( 6-1 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 3.37% Total : 74.1% | 1-1 @ 7.57% ( 0-0 @ 3.97% ( 2-2 @ 3.6% ( Other @ 0.86% Total : 16% | 0-1 @ 3.09% ( 1-2 @ 2.94% ( 0-2 @ 1.2% ( 2-3 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 1.72% Total : 9.89% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 28 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 68 | 17 | 51 | 71 |
| 2 | Porto | 28 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 60 | 19 | 41 | 67 |
| 3 | Braga | 27 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 60 | 24 | 36 | 62 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 27 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 56 | 26 | 30 | 57 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 44 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 41 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 28 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 39 |
| 8 | Vizela | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 38 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 34 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 31 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 28 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
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