

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 42.35%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.83%) and 2-0 (5.81%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Vitesse | 
| 42.35% ( | 23.26% ( | 34.38% ( | 
| Both teams to score 63.75% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 62.3% ( | 37.69% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 40.06% ( | 59.93% ( | 
| NEC Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 81.74% ( | 18.26% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.69% | 49.3% ( | 
| Vitesse Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 77.99% ( | 22.01% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.67% ( | 55.33% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| NEC | Draw | Vitesse | 
| 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 1-0 @ 6.83% ( 2-0 @ 5.81% ( 3-1 @ 4.99% ( 3-2 @ 3.77% ( 3-0 @ 3.29% ( 4-1 @ 2.12% 4-2 @ 1.6% 4-0 @ 1.4% Other @ 3.73% Total : 42.35%  | 1-1 @ 10.34% 2-2 @ 6.66% ( 0-0 @ 4.02% ( 3-3 @ 1.9% ( Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.26%  | 1-2 @ 7.83% 0-1 @ 6.08% ( 0-2 @ 4.6% 1-3 @ 3.95% ( 2-3 @ 3.36% 0-3 @ 2.32% 1-4 @ 1.49% 2-4 @ 1.27% ( Other @ 3.47% Total : 34.38%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 82 | 
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 40 | 49 | 75 | 
| 3 | Ajax | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 69 | 
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 67 | 
| 5 | FC Twente | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 27 | 39 | 64 | 
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 59 | 
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 54 | 
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 46 | 
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 41 | 
| 10 | Vitesse | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 40 | 
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 40 | 
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 39 | 
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 36 | 
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 71 | -29 | 36 | 
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 32 | 
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 | 
| R | Cambuur | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 19 | 
| R | Groningen | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 75 | -44 | 18 | 
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
