Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 32.09% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 39.49% ( | 28.42% ( | 32.09% ( |
| Both teams to score 46.07% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.84% ( | 60.16% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.64% ( | 80.36% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.31% ( | 29.69% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.25% ( | 65.75% ( |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.52% ( | 34.48% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.81% ( | 71.19% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 1-0 @ 12.43% ( 2-1 @ 8.04% ( 2-0 @ 7.55% ( 3-1 @ 3.25% ( 3-0 @ 3.06% ( 3-2 @ 1.73% ( 4-1 @ 0.99% 4-0 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 1.52% Total : 39.49% | 1-1 @ 13.23% 0-0 @ 10.23% 2-2 @ 4.28% ( Other @ 0.67% Total : 28.41% | 0-1 @ 10.9% ( 1-2 @ 7.05% 0-2 @ 5.8% ( 1-3 @ 2.5% 0-3 @ 2.06% 2-3 @ 1.52% Other @ 2.25% Total : 32.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 13 | 48 | 65 |
| 2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 |
| 3 | Braga | 24 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 40 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 37 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 35 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 30 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
| 11 | Vizela | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 29 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 13 | ChavesChaves | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 24 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 16 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 24 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 42 | -24 | 15 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 15 |
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