

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 46.17%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 27.31% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 46.17% ( | 26.51% ( | 27.31% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.26% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.98% ( | 55.01% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.72% ( | 76.28% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.21% ( | 23.79% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.05% ( | 57.94% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.63% ( | 35.37% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.87% ( | 72.13% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 12.08% ( 2-1 @ 9.02% ( 2-0 @ 8.67% ( 3-1 @ 4.32% ( 3-0 @ 4.15% ( 3-2 @ 2.24% ( 4-1 @ 1.55% ( 4-0 @ 1.49% ( Other @ 2.65% Total : 46.17% | 1-1 @ 12.55% ( 0-0 @ 8.41% ( 2-2 @ 4.69% ( Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.5% | 0-1 @ 8.74% ( 1-2 @ 6.53% ( 0-2 @ 4.54% ( 1-3 @ 2.26% ( 2-3 @ 1.62% ( 0-3 @ 1.57% ( Other @ 2.04% Total : 27.32% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 83 | 25 | 58 | 75 |
| 2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 80 | 25 | 55 | 75 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 64 |
| 4 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 57 | 28 | 29 | 62 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 51 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 50 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 40 | 34 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 36 |
| 11 | Nacional | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 33 |
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 32 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 29 |
| 16 | AVS | 31 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 23 | 55 | -32 | 24 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 20 | 42 | -22 | 21 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 52 | -32 | 21 |
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