
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 41.32%. A win for AVS had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest AVS win was 0-1 (10.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | AVS |
| 41.32% ( | 27.92% ( | 30.76% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.07% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.29% ( | 58.7% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.76% ( | 79.24% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.05% ( | 27.95% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.42% ( | 63.58% ( |
| AVS Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.32% ( | 34.67% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.6% ( | 71.4% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | AVS |
| 1-0 @ 12.35% ( 2-1 @ 8.34% ( 2-0 @ 7.87% ( 3-1 @ 3.54% ( 3-0 @ 3.35% ( 3-2 @ 1.88% ( 4-1 @ 1.13% ( 4-0 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 1.79% Total : 41.32% | 1-1 @ 13.08% ( 0-0 @ 9.69% ( 2-2 @ 4.42% ( Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.91% | 0-1 @ 10.26% ( 1-2 @ 6.93% ( 0-2 @ 5.44% ( 1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0-3 @ 1.92% ( 2-3 @ 1.56% ( Other @ 2.2% Total : 30.76% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 78 | 25 | 53 | 72 |
| 2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 74 | 25 | 49 | 72 |
| 3 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 51 | 25 | 26 | 63 |
| 4 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 62 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 48 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 35 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 33 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 33 |
| 13 | Nacional | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 32 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 26 |
| 16 | AVS | 30 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 24 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 21 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 21 |
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