

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 53.35%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 20.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.91%) and 1-2 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (7.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Famalicao |
| 20.74% ( | 25.91% ( | 53.35% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.45% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.06% ( | 57.94% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.36% ( | 78.64% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.85% ( | 43.15% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.59% ( | 79.41% ( |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.18% ( | 21.82% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.96% ( | 55.04% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Famalicao |
| 1-0 @ 7.91% ( 2-1 @ 5.06% ( 2-0 @ 3.33% ( 3-1 @ 1.42% ( 3-2 @ 1.08% ( 3-0 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 1.01% Total : 20.74% | 1-1 @ 12.04% ( 0-0 @ 9.41% ( 2-2 @ 3.85% ( Other @ 0.59% Total : 25.9% | 0-1 @ 14.33% ( 0-2 @ 10.91% ( 1-2 @ 9.17% ( 0-3 @ 5.54% ( 1-3 @ 4.65% ( 0-4 @ 2.11% ( 2-3 @ 1.96% ( 1-4 @ 1.77% ( Other @ 2.92% Total : 53.35% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 75 | 24 | 51 | 69 |
| 2 | Benfica | 28 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 23 | 46 | 68 |
| 3 | Porto | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 25 | 30 | 59 |
| 4 | Braga | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 57 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 48 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 46 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 43 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 40 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 35 |
| 11 | Nacional | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 29 |
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 29 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 26 |
| 16 | AVS | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 18 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 47 | -28 | 18 |
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