

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.8%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 8.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.34%) and 0-3 (10.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.49%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (3.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon | 
| 8.44% (  -0.06) | 15.76% (  -0.16) | 75.8% (  0.22) | 
| Both teams to score 43.86% (  0.3) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 58.69% (  0.55) | 41.31% (  -0.55) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 36.29% (  0.55) | 63.71% (  -0.55) | 
| Estoril Praia Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 48.31% (  0.23) | 51.69% (  -0.23) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.2% (  0.15) | 85.8% (  -0.15) | 
| Sporting Lisbon Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 90.8% (  0.19) | 9.2% (  -0.19) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 68.84% (  0.45) | 31.16% (  -0.45) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon | 
| 1-0 @ 3.14% (  -0.06) 2-1 @ 2.47% (  -0.01) 2-0 @ 1.04% (  -0.01) Other @ 1.79% Total : 8.44% | 1-1 @ 7.49% (  -0.07) 0-0 @ 4.76% (  -0.12) 2-2 @ 2.95% (  0.02) Other @ 0.57% Total : 15.76% | 0-2 @ 13.53% (  -0.11) 0-1 @ 11.34% (  -0.19) 0-3 @ 10.76% (  0.01) 1-2 @ 8.93% (  -0.01) 1-3 @ 7.1% (  0.05) 0-4 @ 6.42% (  0.06) 1-4 @ 4.24% (  0.07) 0-5 @ 3.06% (  0.05) 2-3 @ 2.34% (  0.03) 1-5 @ 2.02% (  0.05) 2-4 @ 1.4% (  0.03) 0-6 @ 1.22% (  0.03) Other @ 3.41% Total : 75.78% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 64 | 21 | 43 | 56 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 23 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 18 | 35 | 53 | 
| 3 | Porto | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 49 | 19 | 30 | 50 | 
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 22 | 18 | 47 | 
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 39 | 
| 6 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 36 | 
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 35 | 
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 34 | 
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 31 | 
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 29 | 
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 27 | 
| 12 | Nacional | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 26 | 
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 25 | 
| 14 | AVS | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 23 | 
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 22 | 
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 22 | 
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 24 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 34 | -19 | 16 | 
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 40 | -25 | 15 | 
| > Primeira Liga Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
