

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 58.14%. A draw has a probability of 21.6% and a win for Nacional has a probability of 20.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (9.3%) and 0-2 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Nacional win it is 2-1 (5.43%).
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 20.28% ( | 21.57% ( | 58.14% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.89% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.92% ( | 41.07% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.53% ( | 63.47% ( |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.05% ( | 33.94% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.38% ( | 70.62% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.13% ( | 13.87% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.73% ( | 41.26% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 5.43% ( 1-0 @ 5.09% ( 2-0 @ 2.75% ( 3-1 @ 1.96% ( 3-2 @ 1.93% ( 3-0 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 2.14% Total : 20.28% | 1-1 @ 10.04% ( 2-2 @ 5.36% ( 0-0 @ 4.71% ( 3-3 @ 1.27% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 21.57% | 1-2 @ 9.93% ( 0-1 @ 9.3% ( 0-2 @ 9.19% ( 1-3 @ 6.54% ( 0-3 @ 6.05% ( 2-3 @ 3.53% ( 1-4 @ 3.23% ( 0-4 @ 2.99% ( 2-4 @ 1.74% ( 1-5 @ 1.28% ( 0-5 @ 1.18% ( Other @ 3.2% Total : 58.14% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | BoavistaBoavista | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | AVS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Nacional | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
| 15 | AroucaArouca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
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