

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.23%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 13.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.35%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 13.13% ( | 18.64% ( | 68.23% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.03% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.99% ( | 41.01% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.6% ( | 63.4% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.34% ( | 42.66% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.99% ( | 79.01% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89% ( | 11% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 64.72% ( | 35.28% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 4% ( 2-1 @ 3.76% ( 2-0 @ 1.7% ( 3-2 @ 1.18% ( 3-1 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 1.42% Total : 13.13% | 1-1 @ 8.82% ( 0-0 @ 4.69% ( 2-2 @ 4.15% ( Other @ 0.98% Total : 18.64% | 0-2 @ 11.43% ( 0-1 @ 10.35% ( 1-2 @ 9.74% ( 0-3 @ 8.41% ( 1-3 @ 7.17% ( 0-4 @ 4.64% ( 1-4 @ 3.95% ( 2-3 @ 3.05% ( 0-5 @ 2.05% ( 1-5 @ 1.75% ( 2-4 @ 1.68% ( Other @ 4% Total : 68.22% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 61 | 20 | 41 | 53 |
| 2 | Benfica | 23 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 18 | 35 | 53 |
| 3 | Porto | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 49 | 19 | 30 | 50 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 22 | 18 | 47 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 39 |
| 6 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 36 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 35 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 34 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 31 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 29 |
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 27 |
| 12 | Nacional | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 25 |
| 14 | AVS | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 23 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 22 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 22 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 24 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 34 | -19 | 16 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 40 | -25 | 15 |
| > Primeira Liga Full Table | |||||||||
