

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 41.59%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.14%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 2-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that SC Farense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SC Farense | Draw | Estoril Praia | 
| 33.99% (  0.19) | 24.41% (  0.11) | 41.59% (  -0.3) | 
| Both teams to score 59.39% (  -0.34) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 56.66% (  -0.47) | 43.34% (  0.47) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 34.26% (  -0.46) | 65.74% (  0.47) | 
| SC Farense Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.13% (  -0.11) | 24.87% (  0.12) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.52% (  -0.15) | 59.48% (  0.16) | 
| Estoril Praia Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 79.05% (  -0.33) | 20.95% (  0.34) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.31% (  -0.53) | 53.69% (  0.53) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| SC Farense | Draw | Estoril Praia | 
| 2-1 @ 7.88% (  0.03) 1-0 @ 7.25% (  0.13) 2-0 @ 5.04% (  0.07) 3-1 @ 3.66% (  0) 3-2 @ 2.86% (  -0.03) 3-0 @ 2.34% (  0.02) 4-1 @ 1.27% (  -0) 4-2 @ 0.99% (  -0.01) Other @ 2.7% Total : 33.99% | 1-1 @ 11.33% (  0.08) 2-2 @ 6.16% (  -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.21% (  0.11) 3-3 @ 1.49% (  -0.03) Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.41% | 1-2 @ 8.86% (  -0.03) 0-1 @ 8.14% (  0.09) 0-2 @ 6.37% (  0) 1-3 @ 4.62% (  -0.06) 0-3 @ 3.32% (  -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.21% (  -0.05) 1-4 @ 1.8% (  -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.3% (  -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.26% (  -0.03) Other @ 2.73% Total : 41.59% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 | 
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 | 
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 | 
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 | 
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 | 
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 | 
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 | 
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 | 
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 | 
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 | 
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 | 
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 | 
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 | 
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 | 
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 | 
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