

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 60.46%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 18.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.46%) and 1-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for a SC Farense win it was 1-2 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | SC Farense |
| 60.46% ( | 20.83% ( | 18.7% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.69% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.95% ( | 40.04% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.59% ( | 62.41% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.15% ( | 12.84% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.8% ( | 39.2% ( |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.04% ( | 34.96% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.3% ( | 71.7% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | SC Farense |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 2-0 @ 9.46% ( 1-0 @ 9.21% ( 3-1 @ 6.8% ( 3-0 @ 6.47% ( 3-2 @ 3.57% ( 4-1 @ 3.49% ( 4-0 @ 3.32% ( 4-2 @ 1.83% ( 5-1 @ 1.43% ( 5-0 @ 1.36% ( Other @ 3.58% Total : 60.46% | 1-1 @ 9.68% ( 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0-0 @ 4.49% ( 3-3 @ 1.25% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 20.83% | 1-2 @ 5.09% ( 0-1 @ 4.72% ( 0-2 @ 2.48% ( 2-3 @ 1.83% ( 1-3 @ 1.78% ( Other @ 2.8% Total : 18.7% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 43 |
| 2 | Benfica | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 39 |
| 3 | Porto | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 35 |
| 4 | Braga | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 23 | 17 | 33 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 26 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 8 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 19 |
| 10 | PortimonensePortimonense | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 18 |
| 11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 17 |
| 13 | BoavistaBoavista | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 17 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 15 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 15 |
| 17 | Vizela | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 13 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 11 |
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