

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 37.55%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 36.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.1%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 0-1 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Accrington Stanley | Draw | Gillingham |
| 37.55% ( | 25.52% ( | 36.93% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.89% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.94% ( | 48.05% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.78% ( | 70.22% ( |
| Accrington Stanley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.93% ( | 25.06% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.25% ( | 59.75% ( |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.59% ( | 25.4% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.78% ( | 60.22% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Accrington Stanley | Draw | Gillingham |
| 1-0 @ 8.81% ( 2-1 @ 8.35% ( 2-0 @ 6.1% ( 3-1 @ 3.85% ( 3-0 @ 2.81% ( 3-2 @ 2.64% ( 4-1 @ 1.33% ( 4-0 @ 0.97% ( 4-2 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 1.76% Total : 37.55% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( 0-0 @ 6.37% ( 2-2 @ 5.72% ( 3-3 @ 1.21% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.52% | 0-1 @ 8.73% ( 1-2 @ 8.27% ( 0-2 @ 5.98% ( 1-3 @ 3.78% ( 0-3 @ 2.73% ( 2-3 @ 2.61% ( 1-4 @ 1.29% ( 0-4 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.6% Total : 36.93% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Walsall | 37 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 69 |
| 2 | Bradford CityBradford | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 66 |
| 3 | AFC Wimbledon | 37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 49 | 26 | 23 | 63 |
| 4 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 54 | 44 | 10 | 63 |
| 5 | Notts County | 37 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 56 | 39 | 17 | 61 |
| 6 | Port Vale | 36 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 61 |
| 7 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 14 | 16 | 7 | 45 | 33 | 12 | 58 |
| 8 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 57 |
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 37 | 17 | 5 | 15 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 56 |
| 10 | Salford City | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 44 | 41 | 3 | 53 |
| 11 | Bromley | 37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 52 |
| 12 | Chesterfield | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 51 |
| 13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 37 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 50 |
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 37 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 49 | 46 | 3 | 49 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 55 | 55 | 0 | 47 |
| 16 | Newport CountyNewport | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 46 |
| 17 | BarrowBarrow | 36 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 40 | 43 | -3 | 44 |
| 18 | MK Dons | 36 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 42 |
| 20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 40 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 40 |
| 22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 55 | -27 | 36 |
| 23 | Morecambe | 37 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 33 | 56 | -23 | 30 |
| 24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 36 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 26 | 53 | -27 | 27 |
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