

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 44.31%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (8.31%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 1-0 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Gillingham would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gillingham | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
| 28.77% ( | 26.91% ( | 44.31% ( |
| Both teams to score 49% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.21% ( | 55.79% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.08% ( | 76.92% ( |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.37% ( | 34.63% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.65% ( | 71.35% ( |
| Accrington Stanley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.96% ( | 25.04% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.29% ( | 59.71% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gillingham | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
| 1-0 @ 9.19% ( 2-1 @ 6.75% ( 2-0 @ 4.88% ( 3-1 @ 2.39% ( 3-0 @ 1.72% ( 3-2 @ 1.65% ( Other @ 2.19% Total : 28.77% | 1-1 @ 12.73% ( 0-0 @ 8.67% ( 2-2 @ 4.68% ( Other @ 0.84% Total : 26.91% | 0-1 @ 12% ( 1-2 @ 8.82% ( 0-2 @ 8.31% ( 1-3 @ 4.07% ( 0-3 @ 3.84% ( 2-3 @ 2.16% ( 1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0-4 @ 1.33% ( Other @ 2.37% Total : 44.3% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Walsall | 37 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 69 |
| 2 | Bradford CityBradford | 36 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 48 | 30 | 18 | 66 |
| 3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 36 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 53 | 43 | 10 | 62 |
| 4 | Notts County | 36 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 55 | 37 | 18 | 61 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 25 | 22 | 60 |
| 6 | Port Vale | 35 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 44 | 37 | 7 | 58 |
| 7 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 36 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 44 | 37 | 7 | 56 |
| 8 | Grimsby Town | 36 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 51 | 53 | -2 | 56 |
| 9 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 36 | 13 | 16 | 7 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 55 |
| 10 | Bromley | 37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 52 |
| 11 | Salford City | 36 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 50 |
| 12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 36 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 49 |
| 13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 49 |
| 14 | Chesterfield | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 56 | 43 | 13 | 48 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 52 | 52 | 0 | 46 |
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 35 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 43 |
| 17 | Newport CountyNewport | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 43 |
| 18 | MK Dons | 35 | 12 | 6 | 17 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 42 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 41 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 40 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 36 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 39 |
| 22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 36 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 33 |
| 23 | Morecambe | 36 | 8 | 5 | 23 | 31 | 54 | -23 | 29 |
| 24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 35 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25 | 51 | -26 | 27 |
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