

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 44.19%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 29.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (8%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-0 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Moreirense |
| 29.5% ( | 26.31% ( | 44.19% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.21% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.86% ( | 53.14% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.29% ( | 74.71% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.31% ( | 32.68% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.76% ( | 69.23% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.08% ( | 23.92% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.86% ( | 58.13% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 8.74% ( 2-1 @ 6.99% ( 2-0 @ 4.89% ( 3-1 @ 2.61% ( 3-2 @ 1.86% ( 3-0 @ 1.82% ( Other @ 2.58% Total : 29.5% | 1-1 @ 12.5% ( 0-0 @ 7.82% ( 2-2 @ 5% ( Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.3% | 0-1 @ 11.18% 1-2 @ 8.95% ( 0-2 @ 8% ( 1-3 @ 4.27% ( 0-3 @ 3.81% ( 2-3 @ 2.39% ( 1-4 @ 1.53% ( 0-4 @ 1.36% ( Other @ 2.71% Total : 44.19% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 43 |
| 2 | Benfica | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 11 | 24 | 42 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 38 |
| 4 | Braga | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 25 | 15 | 33 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 29 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 8 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 20 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 18 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 18 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 | Vizela | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 11 |
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