

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 1-0 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Moreirense |
| 33.92% ( | 26.52% ( | 39.56% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.21% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.38% ( | 52.61% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.73% ( | 74.26% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.62% ( | 29.38% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.63% ( | 65.37% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.93% ( | 26.06% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.89% ( | 61.11% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 9.38% ( 2-1 @ 7.72% ( 2-0 @ 5.74% ( 3-1 @ 3.15% ( 3-0 @ 2.35% ( 3-2 @ 2.12% ( 4-1 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 2.49% Total : 33.92% | 1-1 @ 12.61% ( 0-0 @ 7.66% ( 2-2 @ 5.19% ( 3-3 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.52% | 0-1 @ 10.29% ( 1-2 @ 8.48% ( 0-2 @ 6.92% ( 1-3 @ 3.8% ( 0-3 @ 3.1% ( 2-3 @ 2.33% ( 1-4 @ 1.28% ( 0-4 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 2.31% Total : 39.55% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 43 |
| 2 | Benfica | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 11 | 24 | 42 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 38 |
| 4 | Braga | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 25 | 15 | 33 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 29 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 8 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 20 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 18 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 18 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 | Vizela | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 11 |
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