

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 42.94%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 31.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Boavista |
| 42.94% ( | 25.3% ( | 31.76% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.54% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.98% ( | 48.02% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.81% ( | 70.19% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.69% ( | 22.31% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.23% ( | 55.77% ( |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.49% ( | 28.51% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.71% ( | 64.29% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Boavista |
| 1-0 @ 9.54% ( 2-1 @ 8.98% ( 2-0 @ 7.16% ( 3-1 @ 4.49% ( 3-0 @ 3.58% ( 3-2 @ 2.82% ( 4-1 @ 1.69% ( 4-0 @ 1.34% ( 4-2 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 2.29% Total : 42.94% | 1-1 @ 11.97% ( 0-0 @ 6.36% ( 2-2 @ 5.64% ( 3-3 @ 1.18% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.29% | 0-1 @ 7.98% ( 1-2 @ 7.51% ( 0-2 @ 5.01% ( 1-3 @ 3.14% ( 2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0-3 @ 2.1% ( 1-4 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 2.68% Total : 31.76% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 |
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