

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 43.23%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 29.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Moreirense |
| 43.23% ( | 27.46% ( | 29.3% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.7% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.4% ( | 57.6% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.62% ( | 78.37% ( |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.59% ( | 26.41% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.43% ( | 61.57% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.81% ( | 35.18% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.06% ( | 71.93% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 12.37% ( 2-1 @ 8.6% ( 2-0 @ 8.24% ( 3-1 @ 3.82% ( 3-0 @ 3.66% ( 3-2 @ 1.99% ( 4-1 @ 1.27% ( 4-0 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 2.06% Total : 43.23% | 1-1 @ 12.92% ( 0-0 @ 9.29% ( 2-2 @ 4.49% ( Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.46% | 0-1 @ 9.71% ( 1-2 @ 6.75% ( 0-2 @ 5.07% ( 1-3 @ 2.35% ( 0-3 @ 1.77% ( 2-3 @ 1.57% ( Other @ 2.1% Total : 29.3% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Braga | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 4 |
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