

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 44.01%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 29.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boavista would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Boavista |
| 29.16% ( | 26.83% ( | 44.01% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.45% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.68% ( | 55.32% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.47% ( | 76.53% ( |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.92% ( | 34.08% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.23% ( | 70.77% ( |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.03% ( | 24.97% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.38% ( | 59.62% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Boavista |
| 1-0 @ 9.16% ( 2-1 @ 6.84% ( 2-0 @ 4.93% ( 3-1 @ 2.46% ( 3-0 @ 1.77% ( 3-2 @ 1.7% ( Other @ 2.3% Total : 29.16% | 1-1 @ 12.71% ( 0-0 @ 8.51% ( 2-2 @ 4.75% ( Other @ 0.86% Total : 26.83% | 0-1 @ 11.8% ( 1-2 @ 8.82% ( 0-2 @ 8.19% ( 1-3 @ 4.08% ( 0-3 @ 3.79% ( 2-3 @ 2.19% ( 1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0-4 @ 1.31% ( Other @ 2.4% Total : 44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Braga | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 4 |
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