

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Moreirense win with a probability of 37.17%. A win for Arouca has a probability of 35.11% and a draw has a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Arouca win is 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.08%).
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Moreirense |
| 35.11% ( | 27.73% ( | 37.17% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.6% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.75% ( | 57.24% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.91% ( | 78.09% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.07% ( | 30.93% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.78% ( | 67.22% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.36% ( | 29.64% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.32% ( | 65.68% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 10.75% ( 2-1 @ 7.68% ( 2-0 @ 6.31% ( 3-1 @ 3% ( 3-0 @ 2.47% ( 3-2 @ 1.83% ( Other @ 3.06% Total : 35.1% | 1-1 @ 13.08% ( 0-0 @ 9.17% ( 2-2 @ 4.67% ( Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.72% | 0-1 @ 11.14% ( 1-2 @ 7.95% ( 0-2 @ 6.78% ( 1-3 @ 3.22% ( 0-3 @ 2.75% ( 2-3 @ 1.89% ( 1-4 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.45% Total : 37.16% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Braga | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 4 |
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