Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.83%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 1-0 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
